U.S. stocks rose sharply Monday as Goldman Sachs reported an earnings beat to start a busy week of quarterly reports, and as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will be less aggressive against inflation than feared.
On Monday, Goldman Sachs surpassed earnings expectations on the top and bottom lines, reporting that the firm’s fixed income traders generated about $700 million more revenue than expected. Shares popped 4%.
Bank of America reported quarterly revenue that beat analyst expectations. Shares were up 3%. IBM will post results after the closing bell.
“We anticipate volatility to remain elevated as the market toggles between pricing recession risk and soft landing probabilities with each piece of data,” Citi’s Scott Chronert said in a recent note.
Despite the growing recession fears, S&P 500 companies are expected to post a 4.2% increase in second-quarter profit, according to consensus analyst estimates gathered by FactSet. S&P 500 members are also expected to post a 10.2% increase in revenue for the period, according to FactSet.
Profit expectations for the full year are still high with S&P 500 companies estimated to post a 9.9% earnings increase for 2022, estimates collected by FactSet show.
Other major companies set to report earnings this week include Johnson & Johnson, Netflix, Lockheed Martin, Tesla, United Airlines, Union Pacific, Verizon and a host of other firms.
Investors are wagering that the Federal Reserve will be less aggressive than feared at its meeting later this month. A Wall Street Journal report Sunday said the central bank is on track to lift interest rates by 75 basis points, instead of the full percentage point increase forecasted by some market participants.
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius also said in an overnight note that he expected the Fed to raise rates by 0.75 percentage points.
The major averages are coming off a losing week, despite a Friday relief rally that saw the Dow jump more than 650 points. The 30-stock benchmark shed 0.16% on the week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 0.93% and 1.57%, respectively.
It was the second negative week in the last three for all the major averages.
Recession fears have been front and center in recent weeks as market participants worry that aggressive action from the Fed — in an effort to tame decades-high inflation — will ultimately tip the economy into a recession.
“Markets are likely to remain volatile in the coming months and trade based on hopes and fears about economic growth and inflation,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a recent note to clients.
“A more durable improvement in market sentiment is unlikely until there is a consistent decline both in headline and in core inflation readings to reassure investors that the threat of entrenched price rises is passing,” he added.