Crunch time at the Nato summit

Hello and welcome to the working week.

Nato members will gather in Vilnius on Tuesday as the military alliance faces a crunch moment. The big question is whether Turkey will approve Sweden’s accession. Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said last week that it was “within reach”. US president Joe Biden will be flying in, hoping to pile on the diplomatic pressure to reach a deal.

In the UK, chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey will address business leaders at the annual Mansion House dinner. The economic challenges facing the UK will be thrown into stark relief when the Office for Budget Responsibility publishes its annual report on fiscal risks and the long-term sustainability of the nation’s public finances.

The first indication of the hit to US banking from the financial turmoil this year will come with earnings reports this week: Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo all report on Friday. They are set to take a hit on loans, while investment banking will probably also be a drag.

Inflation figures are due from the US and China, while the UK will report labour data, a monthly gross domestic product update and retail sales. The US has the NFIB and Michigan Sentiment surveys, while Japan provides a machinery orders update.

The Federal Reserve publishes its Beige Book on business activity, while Opec and the International Energy Agency both put out monthly oil market reports.

The Bank of Canada is expected to raise rates a further 25 basis points to 6 per cent, while the Bank of Korea is due to stick at 3.5 per cent.

Various corporate earnings reports are expected, including British Land, Wetherspoons, Uniqlo owner Fast Retailing and Barratt Developments.

The sporting summer continues with the Wimbledon finals next weekend. Have a good week.

What do you think? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you have received this note in your inbox, hit reply.

Economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect.

Monday

  • Sir Adrian Montague becomes chair of Thames Water, succeeding Ian Marchant.

  • China: June consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) inflation figures

  • Japan: May trade balance data

  • Results: Knights FY, TSMC June sales update

Tuesday

  • Germany: final June CPI and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data, plus ZEW economic sentiment survey

  • UK: July labour market figures

  • Results: British Land trading update and AGM, Galliford Try trading update

Wednesday

  • Canada: interest rate setting announcement

  • India, Russia, Spain, US: June CPI inflation rate figures

  • Japan: monthly machine orders data

  • UK: Bank of England publishes the results of the annual stress test of the UK banking system alongside the Financial Stability Report

  • US: Federal Reserve Beige Book

  • Results: Grafton trading update, JD Wetherspoon trading update, PageGroup Q2 trading update, Tata Consultancy Services Q1, Ten Entertainment Group H1 trading update, Tullow Oil trading statement

Thursday

  • International Energy Agency and Opec monthly oil market reports

  • EU: European Central Bank publishes accounts of its June meeting monetary policy discussions.

  • France: final June CPI and HICP inflation rate data

  • South Korea: interest rate decision

  • UK: Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey, and Office for Budget Responsibility publishes its annual fiscal risks and sustainability report

  • US: final June PPI inflation rate data

  • Results: Aker BP H1, Barratt Developments trading update, DCC Q1 trading statement, Delta Air Lines Q2, Experian Q1 trading update, Fast Retailing Q3, The Gym Group trading update, Hays Q4 trading update, John Wood Group H1 trading update, PepsiCo Q2, Trustpilot H1 trading update, Watches of Switzerland FY

Friday

  • France: Bastille Day; financial markets closed

  • US: University of Michigan economic sentiment data

  • Results: Burberry Q1 trading update, Citigroup Q2, JPMorgan Chase Q2, Liontrust Asset Management Q3 trading update, State Street Q2, UnitedHealth Group Q2, Wells Fargo Q2

World events

Here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

  • UK, annual Mansion House dinner with speeches by chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey

  • US president Joe Biden to meet King Charles III at Buckingham Palace and UK prime minister Rishi Sunak at Downing Street

Tuesday

  • Lithuania: Nato summit begins in Vilnius. Attendees include US president Joe Biden

Wednesday

  • South Korea: trial begins of former Samsung chip executive Choi Jin-seok accused of corporate espionage, stealing sensitive information to help his client set up a chip factory in China

  • UK: parliamentary select committee to grill water industry bosses as fears grow over the financial viability of the country’s privatised water suppliers

Thursday

  • Belgium: EU-Japan Summit begins in Brussels, attended by European Council president Charles Michel, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida

  • Finland: US president Joe Biden visits Helsinki for a US-Nordic Leaders’ Summit

  • UK: NHS England releases figures for May and June, along with quarterly waiting time stats for A&E attendances and emergency admissions

Friday

  • EU: Economic and Financial Affairs Council meeting

  • France: President Emmanuel Macron attends the annual Bastille Day military parade on the Champs-Élysées in Paris

Weekend

  • UK: Wimbledon women’s and men’s singles final